November offered a calm exterior but revealed a more layered economic picture beneath the surface. Markets hovered near record levels for much of the month before momentum eased as AI enthusiasm met mixed earnings, shifting Federal Reserve expectations, and reduced government data due to the shutdown.

Shifts in Major U.S. Stock Indices

U.S. equities reflected a blend of changing rate expectations and notable sector rotation. While hopes for easier policy supported late-month buying, profit-taking in stretched tech names limited gains. The S&P 500 edged up 0.13%, the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.64%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.32%.

Policy Messaging and the Missing Data Picture

This month’s macro backdrop was unusually defined by the absence of key government data. The shutdown eliminated October’s CPI release and delayed payroll figures, leaving investors and policymakers with fewer signals to assess trends in inflation and employment. In this gap, Fed officials shaped expectations. Some emphasized that recent cuts brought policy closer to neutral, while others supported additional easing depending on inflation and labor momentum. FOMC minutes revealed a split, with several members favoring a pause unless growth weakens.

Labor Market and Inflation Trends

The delayed household survey means investors enter December without an updated unemployment rate. A combined October–November payroll release is expected mid-month and has taken on heightened importance. Officials continued to highlight opposing forces affecting inflation: stronger productivity tied to AI investment contrasted with potential upward pressure from tariff and immigration policy shifts. Meanwhile, recent commentary noted that inflation has firmed slightly, and with policy rates now lower than in late summer, restrictive pressure may be easing.

Developments in the Housing Market

Existing-home sales held at a 4.1 million annual pace in October, with prices up modestly from last year. Inventory remained tight at 4.4 months of supply, and home-price gains for the year masked regional differences, with strength in some northeastern states offsetting weakness in parts of Florida and D.C. October brought a pickup in delistings and price cuts as sellers adjusted to slower activity. Forecasts point to gradual improvement through 2026, but for now, buyers hold more negotiating power. Demographic trends also continued to shift, with the median buyer age reaching 59 and first-time buyers averaging 40.

Looking Ahead

November’s crosscurrents underscored the value of staying balanced. The Fed is easing but divided, AI and mega-cap tech remain market drivers, and this year’s data disruptions make upcoming economic indicators especially meaningful. Key checkpoints include the December 10th Fed decision and year-end updates from leading AI companies. Remaining diversified, mindful of risk, and focused on long-term goals remains essential in the current landscape.

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